Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 16.244147 19.722117 23.592455 28.194408 33.491649 39.372434 46.368037
2025-04-06 11.715498 16.355413 22.085756 29.572381 38.975060 50.267944 64.718978
2025-04-13 7.935477 12.523045 18.716091 27.455318 39.209354 54.193764 74.424759
2025-04-20 6.284660 10.979301 17.790602 27.999075 42.460500 61.724892 88.758268
2025-04-27 5.166622 9.900598 17.224451 28.788260 45.902495 69.543286 103.773034
2025-05-04 4.369160 9.121082 16.914219 29.799793 49.606813 77.824885 119.768210
2025-05-11 3.665515 8.327857 16.419008 30.394511 52.646177 85.253632 134.881870
2025-05-18 2.975677 7.390190 15.511820 30.171408 54.338898 90.740263 147.419251
2025-05-25 2.325523 6.360742 14.259229 29.181551 54.668046 94.126810 156.966889
2025-06-01 1.886841 5.655484 13.469027 28.854235 55.971839 98.981694 168.830067
2025-06-08 1.448740 4.821148 12.277497 27.637330 55.639442 101.200143 176.720768
2025-06-15 1.267569 4.563981 12.206186 28.470292 58.840296 109.146585 193.728450
2025-06-22 0.987937 3.987348 11.424302 27.983337 59.932641 114.149310 207.057180
2025-06-29 0.869962 3.836741 11.577373 29.400405 64.620197 125.438353 231.087806
2025-07-06 0.595745 3.072287 10.123692 27.296131 62.588538 125.280029 236.591702
2025-07-13 0.494135 2.841160 9.929000 27.837538 65.585854 133.857377 256.759204
2025-07-20 0.418438 2.669866 9.852793 28.623083 69.101181 143.496156 279.069245
2025-07-27 0.361133 2.544509 9.875234 29.629966 73.117026 154.199368 303.573689
2025-08-03 0.301660 2.374492 9.732003 30.221964 76.319465 163.573551 326.147939
2025-08-10 0.235125 2.121908 9.280148 29.999880 77.803371 169.863956 343.621708
2025-08-17 0.169716 1.813960 8.567423 29.014563 77.571402 172.934395 355.559845
2025-08-24 0.128738 1.609546 8.137170 28.688755 78.715581 178.611724 372.271633
2025-08-31 0.087764 1.348218 7.420461 27.477486 77.779618 180.238815 381.767853